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Climate Change Assessment in the Arctic Basin Part 1: Trends and Projections - A Contribution to the Aquatic Climate Change Adaptation Services Program [Draft]
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| Field | Value |
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| Creator | N. Steiner, K. Azetsu-Scott, P. Galbraith, J. Hamilton, K. Hedges, X. Hu, M. Y. Janjua, N. Lambert, P. Larouche, D. Lavoie, J. Loder, H. Melling, A. Merzouk, P. G. Myers, W. Perrie, I. Peterson, R. Pettipas, M. Scarratt, T. Sou, M. Starr, R. F. Tallmann and A. van der Baaren |
| Summary | Within the Aquatic Climate Change Adaptation Services Program (ACCASP), past trends and future projections of key climatic variables such as air and water temperature, precipitation, winds and storms, sea ice and biogeochemical variables are assessed. The assessment forms the basis for the impact, vulnerabilities, and opportunities analysis needed to increase our understanding of the impacts of climate change on the marine ecosystem and departmental operations and enable adaptation in support of DFO’s strategic outcomes. This report summarizes observed trends and projections on a 50-year timescale for the Arctic region, including the four marine basins of the Beaufort Sea, Canadian Polar Shelf, Baffin Bay/Davis Strait and Hudson Bay as well as the predominately terrestrial Mackenzie Basin. To evaluate past trends, national and international data archives (which include land-based station data and cruise data) as well as publications, reports, and earlier assessments have been used. Limited observations in the Arctic, especially for ecosystem variables, lead to significant gaps and limitations in the assessment. Future projections are mostly derived from global models, which give a general tendency and range of expected future changes, but lack local details. Most regional modelling efforts are limited to the atmosphere. Those have been included for higher resolution projections of air temperature, precipitation and wind. Only a few models are available on the aquatic basin scale that simulate ocean properties and sea ice. The main outcomes of the assessment show significant increases in air temperature (0 - 3ºC in summer and 3 – 7ºC in winter over the next 50 years), a slight increase in precipitation and snow depth as well as an intensification in extreme events (hot spells, extreme precipitation). With respect to atmospheric circulation patterns, appreciable changes have been observed. Projections suggest an increase in storm strength and size (storm surges and coastal erosion) as well as a slight increase in wave heights with only small changes in windspeed. An Arctic-wide decrease in the extent of multi-year ice has been observed, together with an increase in ice-free waters in summer (longer time periods and larger areas). These observed sea ice trends are projected to continue into the future. It can be anticipated that the longer open water period will allow wind and storms to have a greater impact on the coast, i.e. erosion. Limited observations of ocean properties show local freshening (e.g. Beaufort Sea) and summer warming (e.g. Baffin Bay). These trends are projected to continue along with localized strengthening in stratification. Increased ocean acidification has been observed and is projected to continue throughout the Canadian Arctic, leading to decreased saturation states of calcium carbonate (aragonite and calcite). Within the Mackenzie Basin, increased lake temperatures and stratification, as well as later freeze/earlier break-up dates have been observed and are projected for lakes. A widespread warming of terrestrial permafrost and thickening of the permafrost active layer has been observed, as well as a slow warming of sub-sea permafrost. Again, this pattern is likely to continue in the future. Changes expected for the next 10 years may in some cases be proportional to the 50-year projections. However, in most instances, natural intra-decadal variability is expected to be at least as important as the overall trends during the next decade. A continuation of the past decade’s trends is expected in the case of ocean acidity, surface air temperature, multi-year ice extent, first-year ice characteristics, storm waves, and permafrost. The assessment concludes that to improve our capability to assess and project climate change adaptation in aquatic ecosystems, more consistent data sets are needed, especially over marine areas and for biogeochemical variables. Higher resolution basin-scale ocean ecosystem models are also required to provide locally applicable projections relevant for Arctic communities and DFO management. |
| Local Relevance | This report summarizes observed trends and projections on a 50-year timescale for the Arctic, including large parts of the NWT such as the Beaufort Sea and the Mackenzie River Basin. |
| Notes | |
| Tags | Marine,Ocean,Trends,Projections,Beaufort Sea,Canadian Polar Shelf,Baffin Bay,Davis Strait,Hudson Bay,Mackenzie River Basin |
| Geographic Region | NWT |
| Release Date | 2013-01-01 |
| Last Modified Date | 2013-01-01 |
| Funding Program |